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 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd (UK)
Category: Book
Buy Used: $99.01
Used (4) from $99.01
Rating:  379 reviews
Sales Rank: 1816665
Format: Import
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 400
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.7
Dimensions (in): 9.3 x 6.2 x 1.4
ISBN: 0713999950
EAN: 9780713999952
ASIN: 0713999950
Publication Date: May 31, 2007
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
Shipping: International shipping available
Condition: Excellent customer service. Order inquiries handled promptly.
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| Customer Reviews:
 Surprisingly personal diatribe January 3, 2009
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
I just finished reading the Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
The book is about the disproportionate effect on our world of highly improbable events, and the difficulty of predicting those events. The name comes from David Hume's observation that many generations of Britons' only seeing white swans was not proof that there is no such thing as a black swan (which do, in fact, exist).
I found the book very disappointing. It started out with so much promise; I looked forward to reading all sorts of anecdotal stories of these so-called black swans, and about the disproportionate effect on our world.
Instead, what I got was a 300 page diatribe by one statistician against all the others in the world who disagree with him, punctuated by an occasional gratuitous insult of the French.
After enduring several hundred pages of personal stories about the author's quest to make his statistical theories known (which are not quite as controversial as he would make you believe, by the way), finally in Chapter 15 it seems that he will get to the meat of the matter. Unfortunately, even though the next three chapters were laden with graphs and figures, I encountered no such explanations. Or, if there were any, they were muddled at best.
Even the anecdotes were disappointing. I was excited to start reading about a great vindication of his - the collapse of LTCM in 1998 (which was run by several of his statistical nemeses) - expecting to find a wonderful explanation of what went wrong, and all the financial turmoil which resulted. Instead, he simply stated "it went bust." Duh.
I have no idea why this book has been so highly touted. Perhaps it is because it came on the heels of 9/11, and just before the credit turmoil which started in 2007. But it's not worth your time.
 Tantalising and frustrating. December 29, 2008
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
The major ideas in this book are without question very important but unfortunately,in my view, poorly elucidated.The arguments are presented in a rambling confused way with lots of superfluous material that serves to obfuscate rather than clarify. The author seems unable to make a point clearly and succinctly and then leave it alone. The interminable stories, name dropping and confusing exemplars make reading large sections of the book sheer drudgery. In addition by basically calling everyone who disagrees with him a moron he casts himself in a very poor light.I also suspect that English is not Mr Talebs native language and this explains his awkward somewhat stilted prose. At the end of the book I could not help but feel that an opportunity for a great book had been squandered for want of a good editor.
 The Socrates of Wall Street December 28, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
I urge any professional, executive, or manager to study Taleb. He reveals the flaws in how we and our peers think. He has a philosophical approach but has little in commmon with most academic philosophers. He draws from his experience in financial derivatives trading, but has little in common with most investment bank analysts or economists. Instead, like Socrates, Taleb shows how supposed "experts" systematically delude themselves and their audiences into believing they know much more than they really do.
 Extreme annoyance December 27, 2008
6 out of 9 found this review helpful
This is one of the most annoying books I have ever tried to read. Perhaps this is because I have a Ph.D. in economics and know something about the topics covered, but could also be because Taleb has a self-indulgent, self-referential, inchoate writing style that would drive any discerning reader crazy. His arguments are almost always tendentious, his expositions seriously flawed, his conclusions spurious. You will learn little or nothing from this book, and may find the experience of reading it highly annoying.
Let me add that I am sympathetic with the conclusions, I just find the writing poor and the exposition tendentious and tedious in a way that I call "bogus mystification," which involves frequent sloppy self-contradiction with the intention of sparking an interruption from the interlocutor which can then be interrupted by the speaker, a middle-Eastern conversational style that fares poorly on paper. Nowhere in this book are the principles explained clearly.
Simply Outstanding Book December 25, 2008
1 out of 3 found this review helpful
This (and its sister book 'Fooled by Randomness') completely blew me away. I am a 24 year old finance major, now working as a management consultant, with a real interest in markets and psychology.
The central thesis of the books are tantalisingly simple: the world is so functionally complex (and growing ever more so) that most social phenomena are effectively `random'. Randomness, however, is poorly understood and even more poorly explained by orthodox mathematical modelling which systematically underestimates the `wild randomness' inherent in the world. Taleb suggests (and attempts to demonstrate) that merely understanding the deficiencies of orthodox thinking with regard to randomness (and probability) is a big advantage in life.
The book(s) are a must read for people looking to understand more deeply the world we live in and the limitations with mainstream thought generally and modern portfolio theory more specifically.
I cannot recommend these books highly enough. I read them both in a couple of days and have found them totally absorbing (in a way few books truly are). They challenge and confront and pull the reader out of his or her `comfort zone' with regard to many perspectives on the world. The core readership of the book will obviously be those interested in behavioural finance but I would happily (and will probably) give the books as presents to friends who hate finance. I will probably also give the books to my mother, which for me is the test of whether I consider a book a `must'.
Having said that the author (this is perhaps at times a symptom of his unique writing style) does at times become rather grandiose. He suggests not advising others about how to behave and then only a few pages later commits the very sin he has just warned against. In `Fooled by Randomness' he invents fictional characters "Nero Tulip" (hmm could the initials N.T also stand for someone else?) - the brilliant but modestly profitable trader (that due to massive risk aversion only invests in treasuries) who overcomes cancer but is overshadowed by a flashy superstar trader neighbour who later `blows up'. In `The Black Swan' Taleb later details how he has overcome cancer and is very risk averse, investing a large percentage of his worth in treasuries. This grandiosity is however in the end totally forgivable due to the ability of the anecdotes to entertain and inform the reader.
One other thing that I found slightly difficult to follow (admittedly I am convinced that I am not as smart as the author so it may be my fault) is the fact that in `Fooled' he correctly discusses peoples' inability to think in terms of conventional probabilities and then sharply criticises those `experts' who rely on such probabilities in managing financial risk (a theme built on very powerfully and convincingly in `Black Swan'). There is the risk that (without meditating somewhat and trying to assimilate everything) the reader will be left nodding at everything Taleb says, but later wondering how it all fits together.
Finally, coming from a legal background I found the discussion in `Fooled' about the warped use of probabilities in the OJ Simpson trial very interesting. The author discusses the legal burden as being `beyond a shadow of a doubt'. I am from Australia (with a different legal system to the USA) but this seems a mistake. I would have thought the correct criminal legal burden would be `beyond reasonable doubt'. This is nitpicking I know.
Great book(s). Priceless wisdom and insight.
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